03-21-2008, 02:59 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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Pure Greatness
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 2,559
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ESPN: Expect Yanks To Get 90 Wins
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A YIP is a pitcher who has spent no more than one season (partial or full) in the majors, has started fewer than 15 games and whose seasonal age (as of July 1) in the current year is 24 or younger.
While these teams don't finish high in the standings, there's no clear performance difference from having lots of starts from young, inexperienced pitchers.
The slope of the line is close to zero, meaning a team's winning percentage has little to do with the number of YIP starts. Clubs win with YIPs, and clubs lose with YIPs regardless of the number of YIP starts.
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Quote:
This distribution makes sense because many of these teams turned to YIPs during rebuilding seasons. That's why the 2008 Yankees can be an exception. They're hardly starting over after making the AL playoffs for the 13th consecutive season.
The four first-place teams -- the 1961 Yankees, the '70 Twins, the '76 Reds and the 2003 Giants -- all went to the playoffs the year before, and each bolstered their staffs with good, young pitchers. Many consider the '61 Yankees and '76 Reds to be among the greatest teams of all time.
The '08 Yankees offer parallels with those two clubs: High-powered offense, rotation anchored by two veterans. This year's Yankees appear capable of having a top-three offense, and Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte are the experienced arms at the top.
Both conditions should benefit the YIPs. That is why [Ian] Kennedy, [Phil] Hughes and [Joba] Chamberlain can be the exception to the rule this season. With their depth, Yankees can afford to let their big three develop. They only need to be good in 2008. There's time for greatness later.
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ESPN.com - Blogs - Rob Neyer Blog
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