I am guessing that it will end up being a deterrent - there is a degree of uncertainty, though, about the impact of being caught. Most players that have been caught and admitted to it seem to be one of two things: the first is a relative unknown (Tim Laker), the othe is a 'class act' (Andy Pettitte).
The former will garner forgiveness simply because nobody will really care... that seems to be the attitude I've witnessed, at least. The latter will be taken at their word - I only tried it 'x' times for 'y' reasons. If someone like Rafael Palmeiro or Barry Bonds comes forward I am not sure what will happen - Giambi was forgiven, but he was never really viewed as negatively as others.
Either way, I do think that this is a greater step forward then simply suspending people haphazardly over glorified hearsay.
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