DodgerBlue32

Enjoy!

Catcher
Russell Martin - .280/.365/.432, 86 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 13 SB
Gary Bennett - .230/.284/.311, 31 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB

Infield
James Loney - .296/.350/.470, 69 R, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB
Jeff Kent - .268/.352/.444, 58 R, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB
Andy LaRoche - .256/.343/.431, 53 R, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB
John Lindsey - .253/.322/.438, 33 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB
Rafael Furcal - .276/.346/.392, 101 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 29 SB
Nomar Garciaparra - .268/.329/.384, 43 R, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB
Tony Abreu - .267/.313/.362, 57 R, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 4 SB

Outfield
Andruw Jones - .249/.344/.503, 88 R, 34 HR, 110 RBI, 3 SB
Matt Kemp - .303/.348/.483, 88 R, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 19 SB
Andre Ethier - .288/.357/.459, 72 R, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB
John-Ford Griffin - .226/.291/.416, 39 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB
Delwyn Young - .255/.295/.408, 71 R, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 3 SB
Juan Pierre - .277/.318/.347, 88 R, 1 HR, 40 RBI, 47 SB
Jason Repko -.235/.297/.396, 41 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 7 SB

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JollyDodger

Jones hitting 34 HR in LA? doubtful

LaRoche's performance mirroring Kent's???

These are lovely projections, but not realistic.

What is Zips anyway?

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DodgerBlue32

Here's the description right from the horse's mouth:

Q. What are ZiPS?

A. ZiPS is a projection system written by Dan Szymborski to project performance in individual baseball players.

Q. What does ZiPS stand for?

A. sZymborski Projection System

Q. That's lame.

A. That's not a question.

Q. OK, do you realize how lame that is?

A. Yes. It originates from the Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics that Voros McCracken developed in 1999. Originally, I was just going to do projections for pitchers, but the realization came that doing one without the other was really dumb. Since it was the first attempt at a non-Voros projection system utilizing some of the discoveries in DIPS theory, I decided to name it in honor of DIPS.

Q. Why is the 'I' in ZiPS lowercase?

A. Because ZIPS looks like some bad shoe at Wal-Mart for little kids while ZiPS totally reminds me of CHiPs. Which is way cooler for a reason I can't put my finger on. I actually meant to call it ZiPs but I typoed it the first time I said the term and didn’t feel like changing it.

Q. So, how is DIPS applied to your pitching projections?

A. I try to predict future BABIP based on a number of factors - the knowledge, demonstrated by Voros, that there's a very strong regression to a mean for this number plus information about the pitcher's tendencies to pitch above his team, his natural BABIP tendencies based on information like handedness, whether or not the pitcher is a knuckleballer, and G/F ratio.

Q. How's the rest come about?

A. I use 4 years of weighted statistics (8,5,4,3) for players between the ages of 24 and 38 and 3 years for younger and older players. This goes for hitter with 3 years mainly being used for pitchers.

Q. How does the aging coming about?

A. My ZiPS program generates growth and decline curves based on player type. I don't try to find particularly similar players but instead large groups with similar characteristics, such as K rate for pitchers, Speed Score for batters, BABIP for batters, handedness, and a lot of other stuff. I do list most similar players at times, but that’s mainly for interest.

Q. Oh my God, my favorite team is projected to get 15000 games! Are you the biggest idiot ever?

A. I'm projecting equivalent production. A player with a projection of 230/270/400 is projected to hit that in the majors if he got that estimated playing time in the majors. A correct projection could be 230/270/400 in the majors or 260/320/450 in AAA or 290/360/500 in AA, depending on the league levels of scoring and the park factors.

Q. How do you project league offensive levels?

A. Weighted recent years. Anything else is just too damn difficult and it usually does the job. It's either that or give all statistics in relative percentages from league average, which is kinda boring. I like projecting a guy to hit 270/330/450, not +1%/-3%/+3%.

Q. How much do these projections cost?

A. They're free for now and for the foreseeable future.

Q. Can I sell your projections?

A. No.

Q. How accurate are the projections?

A. About as accurate (or inaccurate, as is probably the case with projections) as any other commercially available projection system. The 2006 results can be found at
BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: 2006 Projection Results

Overall, I'd give PECOTA the gold for 2006, but I think ZiPS would deserve the silver, at least of the systems that Sean Smith had access to for 2006 (Ken Warren or Rotowire or someone could've waxed all of us - I don't know).

Q. How is playing time calculated?

A. Based solely on recent playing time. ZiPS, as a consequence, only projects injuries to the extent that the injuries were properly reflected by the previous playing time.

Q. Are platoon splits calculated?

A. ZiPS only projects platoon splits to the extent that the future platoon splits were properly reflected by the previous playing time.

Q. Is steroids included?

A. ZiPS only projects steroid play to the extent that past play reflects the same steroid use as future play.

Q. What about leadership? Paul Lo Duca's way too clutch to ever play badly!

A. ZiPS are computer projections and designed to do what computers do best. If one feels there's a truly compelling reason to ignore a projection, such as playing through an injury, or magic beans, or whatever, they should go with their gut and only use a computer projection as an initial objective evaluation, not a final prediction.

Q. What the hell? Where are save totals?

A. I don't project saves because it's way too much of an opportunity-based stat. RBIs might fluctuate based on hitting #3 or #6, for example, but nowhere near the degree that save totals would fluctuate between being the closer or the manager and setup.

Q. How do you decide what players to project?

A. First, I do the 40-man rosters. Then the non-roster invitees if it’s late in the winter. Then unsigned free agents. Then the guys that Sickels looks at if I feel they’re anywhere near being relevant. Then random players that don’t fit any of these categories, like Andy Abad.

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DodgerBlue32

Why is it doubtful that Jones hits 34 bombs in Dodger Stadium? Jones has averaged 34 home runs per season for his career and, despite its reputation, Dodger Stadium is more favorable for home runs than Turner Field.

I don't quite understand where you stand on LaRoche v. Kent. However, I do think with playing time LaRoche's stats would be quite comparable to the ZiPS projections. And, while I do not think Kent's performance will drop that precipitously this season (or hope, perhaps), one has to assume that, at 39, his numbers will begin to tail off some time in the near future.

I am not by any means saying that you are wrong or anything of the sort - I'm, rather, attempting to make this forum more active with discussion and debate.

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JollyDodger

Jones had his SLG% drop 100 pts last year, not to mention his overall BA as well. He is on the back end of his career, and cannot, will not hit 30 HR this year.

Kent is also on the down side of his career, but he has yet to show such a sharp drop-off in production. His has been more gradual, and even with a continuation of this, his numbers will dwarf LaRoche's. This is not because LaRoche cannot produce, its due to playing time and his lack of initial success in limited time. LaRoche will probably platoon with Nomar to begin with. It may come down to R-L splits, but his total number of plate appearances won't be close to Kent's.

If LaRoche had produced like Loney or Kemp in his call-ups, then maybe he'd be set for a healthy gain, but I don't see it...not yet. Remember, I don't want bad things for these guys, but I'm a realist.

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JollyDodger

There is on place on this planet that John Ford-Griffin could hit 17 HR at: Vegas. 17 major league HR? c'mon.

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DodgerBlue32

Don't forget - all of these projections assume at least 400+ at-bats.

Let me address your points that I disagree with:
1) John-Ford Griffin. What makes you doubt that he could produce 17 homers in over 400 at-bats. You could challenge his likeliness to get the playing time (that I'd probably agree with). However, he's shown good pop throughout his minor league career and has, in very limited major league time, 2 home runs in 23 at-bats.

2) Jones had the first bad season of his career last year. He's only thirty and he still hit 26 home runs last year. Plus, he was working with a bad shoulder for much of the year - personally, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think the numbers given to him here are totally reasonable, perhaps with the RBI numbers being a bit of a stretch.

3) I don't understand why you can't see Kent having a downturn at 39, yet see Jones as dead and buried at 30. True, he hasn't seen much of a decline yet - however, he is at the age where you must expect it. I'm hoping he'll continue to rake, and I do see his numbers falling more in line between these projections and last year's numbers... but I do expect a decline.

4) Why are you so down on Andy LaRoche? He showed excellent patience and a solid glove in his cup of coffee last season - these projections are actually understating his patience, in my opinion. In AAA last season he hit .315/.402/.600 with 19 home runs in only 270 at-bats. He also looked quite good in the Winter League with a line of .333/.368/.556. I think a line of .256/.343/.431 is perfectly reasonable - the only thing I may cast a bit of doubt on is the SLG, as he hasn't consistently produced a ton of power.

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JollyDodger

I guess I just don't see the point on estimating 7 outfielders getting 400 ABs.

Just as we look to the past to predict the future, so do I look to what HAS occurred when it comes to Jones and Kent. They've both dealt with injuries and Jones is younger than Kent, but Jones is the one with the startling drop-off, excuses be damned.

I'm not down on LaRoche, he's just a young platoon player at the moment. His AAA and winter league stats may be nice, but the Show is different. I hope he breaks out, yanks the starting job away from Nomar and slugs .500.....but it just won't happen, not this year.

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DodgerBlue32

I can completely understand all of your points - except for being so down on LaRoche.

The numbers they are projecting for him are right in line with the sort of production a player of his quality produces in their rookie season - he's slightly behind the likes of an Alex Gordon or Evan Longoria or Ryan Braun, but ahead of Andy Marte. I think the line they are projecting for him here is damn near perfect.

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Say 'Dodgers' and people know you're talking about baseball. Say 'Braves' and they ask, 'What reservation?' Say 'Reds' and they think of communism. Say 'Padres' and they look around for a priest.

JollyDodger

lol, the AAAA-quality Andy Marte

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