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Old 03-22-2005, 05:02 AM   #1 (permalink)
FantasyBB
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Default Draft Strategy

When going into a fantasy draft, it's always best to have an idea of some specific goals. "Best player available with each pick" is a good, but broad, pursuit, and can leave you with holes to fill and weaknesses for your opponents to exploit. Also, if you're anything like me, it also leaves you vulnerable to fool yourself into making brash decisions. Like the time last season I took Ichiro with the first pick of the 3rd round because I suddenly panicked due to OBP being included in the league and my not having taken that into account on my draft board. And he's not even a great OBP guy!<br /><br />The lesson I learned from that, as well as from another draft I did last season with somewhat more success, is that you want to identify a couple of very specific and detail-oriented things you want to accomplish in the draft. Using that draft as a basis for the discussion, I will cleverly disguise horn-tooting as a list of fantasy draft pointers.<br /><br /><li>The best place to start is by identifying your own strengths. Where do you think you measure ahead of the competition? In last year's AL-only draft I was pretty sure I could pick out a group of sleeping outfielders that could be drafted late but would still produce at a high level. What position or area are you most familiar with? Take advantage of it.<br /><br /><li>Look closely at your league's structure. Are there any uncommon stats being counted? Anywhere you can focus to outmanage your fellow team owners? What position is the thinnest? Move those guys up your board accordingly.<br /><br /><li>Watch your opponents' teams as they draft. Any obvious holes? If you have a spare pick or two, draft to fill your opponents' holes, then hold them over the fire in post-draft trades.<br /><br />Especially in deeper leagues, once you have a basic concept, the dominoes will start to fall into place as you develop an overall strategy. My entire draft in the AL-only league last season was based on the basic concept that I could hold off on drafting any outfielders until real late; I chose to make my infield my top priority and to try to pick up one stud pitcher early. I think I drafted 8th out of 9, and I took Chavez and then Garciappara with my first two picks and Hudson and Todd Walker in rounds 3 and 4. Everybody else is piling on the high-profile sluggers and aces. I ended up having a pretty huge problem on the pitching side -- I ended up taking Rodrigo Lopez as my #2 (ugh) -- but the rest of my strategy worked to perfection. I chose Trot Nixon, Vernon Wells, and Aubrey Huff as my starting OFs and I dominated the offensive categories for most of the season due to the combination of those three guys all having breakout years together with my infield's consistent production.<br /><br />The reason I talk about that is because 1) I'm still rather proud of myself, and 2) I hope to be able to duplicate that success in the future by focusing on what I did right. Okay, so Danys Baez wasn't the closing machine I envisioned and I got real lucky with Mike MacDougal (that reminds me of another point to make), but the point stands: figure out where you're already ahead of the game and press your advantage.<br /><br /><li>And this is universally true: Draft closers late. Last year guys like MacDougal and Baez were going in the 20s. Pick up three guys like that and I guarantee that at least one will be a stud closer. In 2002 it was Guardado and Mike Williams -- guys that were available in the 20s in virtually every draft that put up top-5 numbers. On your closer draft board, make sure you get 3 out of the group you have ranked between 20-25 and you'll thank me.

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